China’s 30-year deadline to rule the world

China’s 30-year deadline to rule the world

CHINA’S leader has laid out his ambitious plans for a superpower in a three-hour speech with huge implications for Australia.

news.com.auOCTOBER 20, 20176:00AM

China has unveiled ambitious plans to become the next major superpower. Picture: Greg Baker/AFPSource:AFP

BEIJING has outlined plans to become the world’s biggest superpower within the next 30 years.

Opening a five-yearly national congress, Chinese President Xi Jinping set out his time frame for the country to become a “global leader” with international influence.

In his 3 ½ hour speech, Mr Xi urged a reinvigorated Communist Party to take a stronger role in society and economic development to better address the nation’s “grim” challenges.

Speaking in the massive Great Hall of the People near Tiananmen Square, Mr Xi laid out his vision of a ruling party that served as the vanguard for everything from defending national security to providing moral guidance.

He also called for the party not only to safeguard China’s sovereignty but also to revitalise Chinese culture, oppose “erroneous” ideology and promote religion that is “Chinese in orientation”.

China’s President Xi Jinping gives his speech at the opening session of the Chinese Communist Party’s national congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Picture: Wang Zhao/AFP

China’s President Xi Jinping gives his speech at the opening session of the Chinese Communist Party’s national congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Picture: Wang Zhao/AFPSource:AFP

He said “it was time for his nation to transform itself into a mighty force” that could lead the entire world on political, economic, military and environmental issues, The Guardian reported.

“The Chinese nation … has stood up, grown rich, and become strong — and it now embraces the brilliant prospects of rejuvenation … It will be an era that sees China moving closer to centre stage and making greater contributions to mankind,” Mr Xi said.

Hailing the start of a “new era”, Mr Xi outlined a vision in which the party would lead China on the road to becoming a “great modern socialist country” by the mid-century.

“The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is no walk in the park or mere drum-beating and gong-clanging. The whole party must be prepared to make ever more difficult and harder efforts,” Mr Xi told hundreds of delegates.

“To achieve great dreams there must be a great struggle.”

In a rare acknowledgment of the country’s economic issues, Mr Xi said China’s “prospects are bright but the challenges are grim”.

Critics argue China’s plans are ambitious given it has massive demographic issues and slowed economic growth.

A Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officer practices conducting a military band before the opening session of the Chinese Communist Party’s five-yearly Congress. Picture: Wang Zhao/AFP

A Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officer practices conducting a military band before the opening session of the Chinese Communist Party’s five-yearly Congress. Picture: Wang Zhao/AFPSource:AFP

CHINA’S BIG PLAN

Senior analyst in defence strategy and capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Dr Malcolm Davis, told news.com.au Mr Xi’s message was loud and clear.

Dr Davis said Beijing wanted to replace the US as the world’s dominant superpower, an idea many people have dismissed as absurd as recently as a few years ago.

“China just doesn’t want to be a just regional superpower, it wants to be the superpower,” he said.

Dr Davis said Beijing wanted to challenge US supremacy and reshape the region according to China’s interests and economic development.

However, he acknowledged China faced several domestic challenges which stood in the way of its long-term goal, including suppression of democracy and freedom of speech.

Dr Davis also said Beijing faced a huge demographic problem with an increasing ageing population and declining birthrate.

This, in turn, would further impact on economic growth.

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Germany last July. Picture: Saul Loeb/AP

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Germany last July. Picture: Saul Loeb/APSource:AP

“Like all authoritarian governments, Beijing sees anything which challenges it as a problem and will crack down hard on that,” Dr Davis said.

“After the Tiananmen Square massacre, Beijing said to its people: ‘If you forgo democracy, we will give you prosperity.’”

He questioned what would happen once China’s prosperity ran out and the disparity between rural and city and the elite and the common man was more obvious.
Dr Davis pointed out Beijing was a major maritime power which the US was aware of and one which was determined to assert its dominance, particularly in the South China Sea.

He said China was also trying to make other countries sign up to its One Belt, One Road infrastructure investment project.

By doing this Beijing was extending its influence over other countries which would align themselves more with China than the US.

Dr Davis said China’s plans had a direct impact on Australia.

A solder in a raincoat stands watch outside the Great Hall of the People during the opening ceremony of the 19th Party Congress in Beijing. Picture: Andy Wong/AP

A solder in a raincoat stands watch outside the Great Hall of the People during the opening ceremony of the 19th Party Congress in Beijing. Picture: Andy Wong/APSource:AP

“Australia was just a backwater when Cold War was taking place, now we are right in the frontline” he said.

“The South China Sea is not far away and China is extending its reach into the Indian Ocean as well.

“We are an ally of the US and a vital partner in any potential conflict. We are front and centre of anything to do with China.”

‘MUSCULAR WORLD VIEW’

Mr Xi may have extolled China’s many great assets, but according to New York-based Asian specialist Sean King, the Chinese President made his keynote speech all about himself.

Mr Xi was “clearly positioning himself” for a possible third term.

“People need to stop calling this event a congress as if it’s some kind of legitimate political event,” Mr King said.

“It’s one man (Xi) controlling the only party in a one-party state. How is that political theatre?”

Mr King said the President may be seeking to modernise his country in regards to infrastructure and technology, but his speech showed cause for concern.

Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin closes his eyes during the President’s long speech. Picture: Mark Schiefelbein/AP

Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin closes his eyes during the President’s long speech. Picture: Mark Schiefelbein/APSource:AP

Indications showed the country was also going backwards when it came to internet freedom, free speech and the right to worship, he said.

“Xi’s muscular world view can mean trouble for the PRC’s (People’s Republic of China) immediate neighbours who typically look to America for security but who now almost openly question our commitment to the region,” Mr King said.

“In particular, our South China Sea friends and allies, as well as Japan’s concerns over its Senkaku Islands.”

Mr King said Australia, Japan, India and other like-minded democracies might conclude they have to take things into their own hands, co-operating more among each other, in the event that the US wasn’t there.

“Our (US) quitting the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which didn’t start out as such but evolved into an economic power play against Beijing, only furthers these fears,” he said.

Mr Xi made many nationalistic references during the speech. Picture: Lintao Zhang/Getty Images/AP

Mr Xi made many nationalistic references during the speech. Picture: Lintao Zhang/Getty Images/APSource:Getty Images

MAN BEHIND THE POWER

Mr Xi opened the congress which is expected to enhance his already formidable power.

In his speech, Mr Xi hailed China’s island-building efforts in the disputed South China Sea as well as his signature foreign-policy initiative, the One Belt, One Road infrastructure investment project aimed at improving connections between China, Europe and Africa.

Mr Xi wields undisputed power and is expected to get a second five-year term as party leader at the gathering.

However, critics claim he has consolidated his power by sidelining his competitors in other intra-party cliques, including those surrounding his immediate predecessor Hu Jintao and former leader Jiang Zemin.

— with the Associated Press

debra.killalea@news.com.au

Why Didn’t the US Shoot Down That North Korean Missile?

Why Didn’t the US Shoot Down That North Korean Missile?

http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2017/08/why-didnt-us-shoot-down-north-korean-missile/140620/?oref=d-river

 

This image made from video aired by North Korea's KRT on Saturday, Aug. 26, 2017 shows a photo of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspecting soldiers during what Korean Central News Agency called a "target=striking contest" in North Korea.

The military’s record of hitting intermediate-range missiles is less than perfect. That makes the decision to attempt an intercept much harder.

This story has been updated to reflect recent developments overnight.

North Korea launched another medium-range missile on Monday, this one right over Japan. Despite Defense Secretary Jim Mattis’ threats to shoot down missiles aimed at Guam and President Donald Trump’s Pyongyang-aimed bluster, the United States and Japan let it fly. Why?

After the test, Trump on Tuesday said that “all options are on the table,” as every president has said for decades. But the Pentagon is still reluctant to use some of the most obvious options, such as shooting down a missile above the earth’s atmosphere with another missile fired from a ship.

The United States has 33 Aegis warships (three more are slated to arrive next year) that can launch an interceptor to hit a mid- or intermediate-range missile like the Hwasong-12 that North Korea sent over Hokkaido. Sixteen of those warships are currently in the Pacific.

ADVERTISEMENT

Pacific Command, in Honolulu did not respond to questions about why they didn’t attempt to down Monday’s missile. The command did issue a statement: “North American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD, determined the missile launch from North Korea did not pose a threat to North America,”

Mattis said earlier this month that any North Korean missile headed toward U.S. land, including Guam and other territories, would be shot down and considered war against the United States. But, he added, if the missile were tracking to land in the sea, it would be the president’s call what to do about it.

See also: As Missile Defense Technology Improves, So Do Odds of an Arms Race in the Pacific

And: The Technology Race to Build — or Stop — North Korea’s Nuclear Missiles

Tom Karako, senior fellow and missile defense expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that if the missile launched Monday were really a threat to the United States or even Japan “then presumably we may well have attempted to engage it.”

But what are the costs and what are the benefits in attempting such an intercept? Anti-missile interceptors like the ones on U.S. warships are designed to hit enemy missiles as they reach peak altitude — in the case of the Hwasong-12, that’s above 3,500 kilometers. The United States has demonstrated that it can intercept mid-range and slightly higher intermediate-range missile. But the test record includes embarrassing and recent failures.

Between January 2002 and August 14 of this year, the Defense Department attempted 37 interceptsof a mid-range missile and hit the target 29 times with an SM-3. There are many reasons for this, but the biggest, according to the Pentagon’s Office of the Director of Operational Testing and Engineering, is that realistic testing of interceptors is very expensive and requires a lot of lead time and support.

ADVERTISEMENT

Update: On Wednesday morning, MDA conducted another successful intercept test using an SM-6 aboard a warship against a medium-range ballistic missile target. “The USS John Paul Jones detected and tracked a target missile launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai, Hawaii with its onboard AN/SPY-1 radar,” the agency said in a press statement.

In February, MDA showed that their newest version of the standard missile, the SM-3 IIAcould hit a mid-range missile. But a second test in June was a failure. The Navy later attributed that to human error. But 50 percent is not a good record for the most advanced intermediate-range interceptor in the U.S. arsenal.

The Obama administration pushed hard for a ship-based defense against mid-range North Korean missiles aimed at Japan or Guam but found that the military has much better chance of hitting missiles that don’t fly so high.

Shooting down an enemy missile aimed at U.S.territory may be good defense, but shooting down a missile test aimed at the sea would be an act of war. Or so argued North Korea.

“Taking a shot at a North Korean missile is not something the U.S. military would do lightly or without a directive to do so,” said Karako. “if we are going to shoot at something, we will do it like we mean it. But there has to be a good reason to do it. That reason might be if there is an actual threat to the U.S., its forces, or our allies. Or it might be if the U.S. or Japan adopts a policy to intercept certain types of missiles or those on certain kinds of trajectory.  But that would have to be a deliberate policy choice.”

The highest probability of success would be to hit the enemy missile closer to the ground, during the so-called boost phase. That’s what MDA is aiming for in the future with laser-armed drones. In July, the agency put out a request for information for a high-altitude long endurance aircraft. Read that to mean a drone that can fly above 63,000 feet for a long time. According to the request, the drone should have enough power for a 140-kw laser. But that program won’t even begin testing until 2023. Until then, and likely even after, every time a missile heads toward Japan, Guam, or anywhere else, military leaders will have to decide whether attempting to shoot down North Korean missiles is worth the costs of possibly missing — or starting a war.